Modelling and Forecasting UK Public Finances

European Public Finances : Much Ado About Nothing ?

In this article, European public finances are analyzed by focusing on the EU budget and the influence of the EU on member states’ taxes and spending. Starting from the economic theory of federalism, the chapter surveys the development of EU revenue, spending and off-budget activities, discusses the redistributive impact of the EU budget on member states, budgetary decision-making procedures and...

Modeling and Forecasting Effects of Crude Oil Price Changes on the US and UK GDP

        This paper proposes a new forecasting model for investigating relationship between the price of crude oil, as an important energy source and GDP of the US, as the largest oil consumer, and the UK, as the oil producer. GMDH neural network and MLFF neural network approaches, which are both non-linear models, are employed to forecast GDP responses to the oil price changes. The resul...

Forecasting UK stock prices

The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, the Error Correction Model (ECM), and the Kalman Filter Model (KFM) are used to forecast UK stock prices. The forecasting performance of the three models is compared using out of sample forecasting. The results show that the forecasting performance of the ECM is better than that of the VAR and the KFM, and that the VAR performs a forecasting better than th...

Forecasting Seasonal UK Consumption Components

Periodic models for seasonal data allow the parameters of the model to vary across the different seasons. This paper uses the components of UK consumption to see whether the periodic autoregressive (PAR) model yields more accurate forecasts than non-periodic models, such as the airline model of Box and Jenkins (1970), and autoregressive models that pre-test for (seasonal) unit roots. We analyse...

Election Forecasting in the UK